This year, we decided not to play the prediction game and instead try to find some correlations between data pieces that could give us insights into the ways social chatter reflects (and maybe even influences) the perception of the Oscar nominees. Using our newly-launched Reports feature, we tracked down mentions for all important categories and sliced the data to highlight interesting and unexpected social media insights.
Here’s what we found in the analytics for the last month:
First, we looked at the overall exposure metrics for the entire event to understand how many average impressions the topic got over the last month. The number is useful to get an overview of the Oscars’ viewership trendline–in other words how many people watched the conversations online, even if they didn’t make a written contribution.
The Conversation Map shows the most important related topics, which is useful for marketers and advertisers looking to connect their brand to the event.
We also showcased the interest rate by country for the #oscars hashtag to get an idea of what location in the world caused the biggest part of this collection of organically curated tweets. Interestingly enough, among all the other English speaking countries, France was the 5th country in the world where people used the hashtag to send out their opinions. (Insight #1)
For the BEST PICTURE category, we took the first 5 most successful candidates (according to the overall number of social media mentions) and compared their sentiment values, in an attempt to correlate the Oscar winner with the “winner” of most positive mentions. Argo got more than 12% positive mentions. (Insight #2)
For both ACTRESS and ACTOR in a Leading Role, we kept score of which social media network got most of the positive mentions, because we wanted to see whether the positive chatter would have an actual influence on the final result for each name. The end goal was to figure out if the platform that drove most of the online buzz could be “awarded” as social influencer of the real results.
Jennifer Lawrence scored an impressive share of positive mentions on Twitter and blogs, while for male actors the breakdown shows Denzel Washington as the one ruling on Twitter, with Daniel-Day Lewis as a very close runner-up. Lewis also gets a big slice of positive mentions on blogs, as well as less “classical” networks like Google+, Forum boards and even YouTube. (Insight #3)
In the case of the BEST DIRECTING category, we created a chart of the number of negative Twitter mentions so that we could visualize whether having fewer negative mentions has an impact on the chances of winning the Oscar. According to these numbers, Lincoln is the most affected by negative chatter, but we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. (Insight #4)
For BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM, we checked out all positive Facebook mentions, then we added a breakdown by gender to the graph. The goal was to determine which gender drives most of the positive conversations on this particular social platform and whether Facebook was more influential than Twitter. We eliminated Frankenweenie, as it only drove 0.30% of all positive mentions, and Wreck-it Ralph got the biggest number of mentions in all gender categories. (Insight #5)
With the CINEMATOGRAPHY chart, we tried to highlight which of the candidates in this category received most of the retweets. The question was whether Twitter endorsements can be correlated to the final winner. The more people agree with a certain tweet, the more compelled they are to RT it, so we figured we could consider retweets a social form of advocacy for a movie’s success. Skyfall seems to be the winner so far. (Insight #6)
In the DOCUMENTARY FEATURE graph, we analyzed the overall sentiment for English mentions on YouTube. Since this is the main online venue for trailers and other video teasers, we looked at YouTube to see if better sentiment values can be considered equivalent to Oscar success. If this were true, The Gatekeepers would go home with the award. (Insight #7)